#BB15: What In the World is Going On?

First off, I have to apologize for neglecting the very blog I started, for a very busy first three weeks of BB. Life happens.

Big thanks to Getting Lost, who has been an enormous help in keeping everyone up to date (including me - I had no idea why Daley had been expelled on BBUK until I read it on my own blog. That's a first...) I do intend to cover BB15 as much as I can find the time, and now that the game is in gear, it's a good time to start weighing back in.

Second, on that note - my God, what a season so far. The elephant in the room, of course, is the racism issue, which anyone who has the internet is aware of by now.

And wow. It's tough to watch at times. My own ethnicity has yet to be insulted (this season, anyway), so I can't even imagine what viewers who do fall into those groups must feel. I know I've spoken to folks who are having a very tough time watching this season. Is it any wonder that Production stepped in to keep Howard off the block this week? Their sole chance of a watchable edit would have been ruined. It's happened in the past, so it's nice to see some recognition from Production that we want the story we're watching to be satisfying. Aaryn's ride from queen bee to bottom feeder has certainly been a fun one to watch, for all her loathsome villainy.

Aaryn and her chosen chess pieces. Don't tell me you're surprised.

There are moments already making this season memorable outside of the horrible comments controversy. GinaMarie's endless mourning for Nick was feeds gold, especially with the recent revelation that the hat she's been wearing in tribute to him actually belongs to McRae, but no one can bring themselves to tell her that. Gold!

The fights have also been off the hook, with this Sunday's "Bedgate" sequence being particularly well-edited. Candice squealing "NICK'S NOT HEEEEERE AND I AM!" may go down as almost as memorable a moment as "Anyone want some cake?", at least in my book.

Kleenax, Nick's shorts - hard to tell the difference. 

And let's not ignore the fact that, for all the horribly unlikable players, there is some good game play happening this year. 

Unlike other recent seasons, houseguests are showing independence in their votes, throwing hinky votes and switching at the last minute. The Nick vs. Elissa vs. Helen vote quite literally came down to the wire, and was actually unpredictable on TV. Feeds viewers expected an 8-3 vote and were shocked when Howard decided to stay loyal to Nick in the Diary Room. 

Can anyone remember the last time we were actually surprised by a houseguest's vote in the Diary Room? It may not have changed the outcome, but the suspense is nice. For once, I don't feel like I know what's going to happen.

Team Helen

Strategy-wise, the Moving Company has now joined the ranks of BB Canada's Quattro in proving why the Brigade has been under-appreciated for their strategic success. The MC showed early promise, with members starting to build side alliances and pledging loyalty to the main alliance, but the gig was up the second Jeremy took his cue from BB Canada's Tom Plant and let his ego get in the way. 

The ultimate downfall of the Moving Company came down to one moment: Jeremy's decision to threaten anyone who wanted to evict Kaitlin while simultaneously pushing for McRae's side ally Amanda to be evicted soon. The second that started, the Moving Company was done.

Let's talk about specific games for a moment, McRae's to start. Wednesday and Thursday, the internet lit up with speculation as McRae started to shift without making his intentions entirely clear to the feed viewers. Ultimately McRae's decision to fully buck the MC in favor of Amanda changed the game - and yet, in the house, the blame is falling on everyone from Jessie to Spencer/Howard, with McRae's key role virtually ignored. I'm liking McRae and his game. He's a strong comp threat with a decent social game who is under the radar. The pizza boy is looking to go deep.

I like Amanda too, though she's a much more visible threat than McRae and topping several target lists right now. They're an odd couple, with Amanda's forceful personality and McRae's quiet beta male presence, but somehow it works, and their strategy together has been good so far. Ultimately, he's doing well to play with her, because she's very likely to go before him. Some of the internet shippers have been all about his "You're my queen" comment, not realizing that in context, that wasn't some sappy declaration of love - it was basic, solid game analysis. McRae is well-hidden behind Amanda and well-positioned to go deep into the game right now, with Amanda as the more visible "queen" in his game of chess. Until she goes, they're an unusual but interesting pair to watch, as long as they're not going to Sea World. (If you don't get that reference, feel lucky.) 

What about the others? Jeremy, Aaryn, Kaitlin and GinaMarie, of course, are abysmally awful. They've alienated the house with bullying and general high school snottiness, causing even follower Jessie to revolt in disgust. Of all of them, GinaMarie looks likely to go far in the game, more as a goat than because of any solid gameplay.

Howard was playing a good game until his hinky vote this week, which led to much suspicion and upped him on many target lists. I have to give him credit for his obvious efforts to suppress his (understandable) anger and focus on game play. That didn't look easy, but props to Howard for strategy on that. If he can manage to slide through the hinky vote guilt and survive another couple of weeks, he might go deep in the game. Wouldn't it be ironic if the "racism" season of Big Brother resulted in the first-ever African-American winner? I think it's entirely possible if Howard can get his game under control in the next few days. (Candice isn't out of the question either, though she seems to be high on the target list of the snotty girls, for non-strategic reasons I have yet to fully grasp.) Spencer is similarly playing an okay game, but is a little too shady to go much deeper than early jury as of right now. 

Judd is also playing well and quickly becoming a fan favorite with his drawling quips. He's a little too under-the-radar right now for me to judge his strategy, but I do find him and Jessie together to be a cute and inoffensive combination and very watchable on the feeds, which is more than I can say for most of the cast right now. Neither one looks likely to go anytime soon, so hopefully as the crowd thins, we'll see more of them and get a better sense. 

Then there's Andy. Oh, Andy. It's always something when you can invent an entirely new strategy never before seen on the show, and Andy's "feed bombing" is becoming legendary on nearly every Big Brother website. Besides being hilarious and something he will probably never live down, it's not bad strategy. Andy does have a solid, if hyperactive, social game, and is liked and trusted by many in the house. His over-the-top bouncing around the house also lands him in many key conversations (and prevents others that could harm him). Will the houseguests grow sick of him and evict him? I see Andy going deep in the game right now. By the way, you know how everyone always argues over the definition of "floater"? Andy is playing a classic, BB4 Jun Song-style floating game right now, and is doing that well. We'll see if he can keep it up as the power continues to shift.

As for Elissa and Helen... sigh. It's really time for someone else to be voted MVP, and I endorse anyone but Elissa at this point. Elissa is also likely to be voted out once the power shifts away from her, which should happen in the next week or two. Helen is a strong political strategist, but has been a little overbearing on her HOH. It's possible that houseguests will start to grow weary of her soon, especially once Elissa is gone and the rest of them have to spend time with her.

All in all, while it's been an uncomfortable season at times, there is some promise for a good game to play out over the coming weeks, and I promise that I will try to be around to weigh in on it as much as I can. And in the meantime - thanks again to new PBP correspondent Getting Lost! 

Spelling Out the Obvious

Want a current breakdown of the house alliances?

Look no further than tonight's dinner seating arrangement.

That is all.

Werk

It's been a day of work in the Big Brother house. 

About halfway through the day, feeds went down for a few hours for the POV ceremony and preparation for the dinner, which the house earned as a result of Peter's task from Marsha the Moose.

Putting on the moves during bedroom lockdown

Alec woke up after sleeping off last night's fight with Emmett and Jillian and immediately went to work entertaining the house and trying to get firmly on everyone's good side. He's not actively campaigning against Topaz, but... he's not exactly not campaigning, either. It's a fine line. He'll sell himself without selling her out. 

His Hail Mary, as he outlined last night, is to promise Emmett and Jillian that he would actively sit out the next Head of Household competition, a promise he's privately told Peter that he intends to stick to. 

For one week, anyway. After that, he's going after Jillian and Emmett with a vengeance.

Trying to get a word in edgewise with Talla on speed

Somehow in all the chaos of the last few days, it seems like Topaz didn't truly believe she was going on the block until it happened, so she's been much grumpier tonight, hanging by herself while Alec works the house. 

She vented to Talla - naturally, she's angry that she could have won the competition and trusted Jillian, who's now broken all three promises that she made. (Jillian disputes this, saying she only broke two of the three, and that putting up Topaz as a replacement pawn doesn't actually violate what she promised her. Sure, Jillian, whatever helps you sleep at night, especially as you contemplate sending Topaz to jury.)

I'm all out of faith, this is how I feel

Emmett, meanwhile, is torn - he seems to switch from Topaz to Alec and back again depending on who he's talking to. As angry as he was after the conversation with Alec last night, something about it resonated, and he wondered all day today if he's better off keeping Alec instead of Topaz. 

He's also trying to pressure Jillian into going for a 2-2 split vote in which she would break the tie, because... well, he's not giving a great reason for it, though it would be super for his game... in a final two against her.

Good thing that invitation to her sister's wedding is in pencil.

A head scratcher

Jillian at this point is changing with the wind too, though her wind smells suspiciously like milk and tattoos. She's worried about being a target next week, so Alec's sit-down promise is tempting, especially since Topaz isn't offering anything like that.

In the meantime, she and Talla are going after Topaz for the dregs of a mostly fake girls' alliance later tonight, and Topaz's reaction to that may well determine whether Jillian supports keeping her in the house, or decides that Emmett's split-vote and Alec's sit-down HOH are more tempting to her game.

Talk to the hand

Andrew is not budging at all - Emmett tried to float the idea of keeping Alec and he unleashed a torrent of reasons why that was a bad idea. There's no doubt in Andrew's mind that Topaz needs to stay, so if a house flip happens, don't expect him to be a part of it.

Shielding

Peter is locked and loaded to do the campaigning against Topaz that Alec refuses to do, already starting to sell her vengeance to Emmett to try to preserve the Shield.

Alec said to Peter tonight that his life is in Peter's hands. It seems like they may have worked out that Peter will have to do the campaigning against Topaz, since wherever Alec is in his torrid soap opera of a relationship at this point, he just can't bring himself to do it.

Mr. and Mrs. Jones

Talla, meanwhile, has been on crack today. She spent some time after the task reveal dancing around the house jabbering to Tom's monkey Mr. Jones, until Big Brother broke down and confiscated it. They instead gave her a card that said "Do you love it?", her catchphrase, which she's been alternately wearing, talking to, and promising to marry.

In the middle of all of this, she's working as Jill's lackey in this arrangement with Topaz. It seems like she wants the guys out of the way one way or another, and Alec is simply another means to this end.

So right now, the votes are looking like this:

Andrew: Voting out Alec

Talla: Voting out Alec

Peter: Voting out Topaz

Emmett: Could vote out Topaz or Alec 

Jillian: Could cast the swing vote either way if Emmett votes out Topaz.

Alec is probably still going home, but things aren't looking quite as dismal as they did twenty-four hours ago.

And, hey - what ever happened to that "mundo power"? No one is acting like they have it, especially not Jillian, so we might be looking at a Wednesday night public vote, in which case, it really will be anyone's game.

Quattro's Ghost

It was an eventful night up north in the Big Brother Canada house last night.

Why not, bro?

The houseguests realized that Tom's picture was back in color and spent much of the evening spotting signs around the house that pointed to his imminent return.

Did you hear that?

As they talled up the clues (cards, extra chairs, and for some reason, shoe polish), they heard footsteps from the direction of the Diary Room and began to freak out.

By this point, Talla was so spooked that she took a broom to protect Jillian, who thought she heard a dog barking in the backyard and went to investigate.

Safe from Tom

Andrew should never have taken Talla to see Evil Dead.

So is Tom returning to the game? Of course not, the whole thing seems to be the work of Peter, who was spotted earlier in the day hiding many of the objects that were later found, including Tom's monkey.

Marsha's favorite

Late in the discussion, Peter started dropping hints for them to check the HOH room for more clues, and verbally tallying up all the clues that were found, loudly, for Big Brother to analyze. Emmett and Jillian insisted they already had checked HOH, which was true, but they're not revealing the many clues that they discovered in her room, thinking that they might be keys to a power. Yes, because Tom's stuffed monkey is going to be the key to the Diamond Power of Veto.

Looking for a higher power

There might be something to it, though - the Diary Room apparently told her to "look to a higher power", and she and Emmett took the search very seriously. The house may actually fail Peter's task because of Emmett and Jillian's paranoia.

Quattro's dying breath

Speaking of Emmett and Jillian's paranoia, the nu-Quattro members finally had the confrontation they've been building towards for days. Oddly, they did it out in the open by the kitchen, in angry whispers. 

Topaz was spotted on another feed silently picking her nails in the bathroom for most of the duration of the argument. Listening in? If so, she probably didn't hear anything that would have contradicted the truths Alec laid out for her earlier in the day. The conversation seemed to be his legitimate attempt to salvage Quattro and his showmance and get Talla on the block. He didn't argue against putting Topaz on the block, but he didn't endorse it enthusiastically the way he would have a week or two ago. 

Deflecting a target

Alec tried to convince them he would still be loyal, including an offer to literally sit out the next HOH competition, but Emmett wasn't having it. Both of them grew more and more angry, with Peter and Jillian trying to calm them down.

Emmett's favorite ally

Emmett was trying to create some indignation over Alec's moves in the house, but Alec was able to blow off most of his arguments. 

The real truth here is that Emmett found a better deal in a final four with Andrew and Talla, where he's at a competitive advantage, and he wanted to take his chances. Oddly, this may mean he goes home if he loses the final contests, but he seems willing to take that risk. 

He and Jillian pow-wowed afterwards and decided that Alec and Peter were condescending pricks, and it looks like their original plan is still on. Emmett did point out that keeping Alec could neutralize Talla, and leave them with no enemies in the house, so it's not out of the question, but it's looking slim.

Alec, or "Toast"

In other news, an update overnight on Jokers reported a hidden veto in a camera tree in the backyard, which would tie in with both Arisa's hints of a "mondo power" and the Diary Room's hints to Jillian to "look up". No one else seems to have spotted it, though, so it could be a misinterpretation or hoax.

Either way, the oddness hasn't stopped, and this should be an interesting week. Alec's only hope at this point is the magical camera tree veto, so that's about where his game stands. 

The Emperor of (His Own) Doom

With fellow nominee Peter winning this week's Power of Veto (seriously? Now you win a competition?) Alec's chances of surviving the week are not looking good at this point.

I cannot get enough of this cap series.

Alec started the game as a player with a lot of promise, which is why I've been paying attention to him - a self-professed student of the game, a Big Brother international superfan, a social psychology doctoral student, and a decent athlete to boot - so yeah, I had high expectations. 

Unfortunately, Alec has failed to realize them. He wanted to be Dr. Will, but Alec is more of a Dr. Won't.

The Shield Moms - can anyone spot which Mom is doing the sign wrong? (Hint: her son did not win the POV.)

He and Peter have been stars of the broadcast show and seem to be favorites of Production (I mean, their moms got a segment together?), but at this point, nothing short of a miracle is going to get him through to next weekend.

Trio

Alec has played an interesting game, but not a winning one. If I had to sum up Alec's game flaws, I would say that he's overconfident, he plays way too personally, and he doesn't understand how to campaign or secure alliances for the long haul.

Let's run through some of the specific mistakes he made along the way:

Why Alec Lost Big Brother Canada

1. He Turned on Quattro!

Yes, it was delicious to watch villains Tom and Liza go out back-to-back in a double eviction, especially after Tom douched it up about Showergate. But Alec was targeting Tom before that, simply because he didn't like him.

Now, I didn't particularly care for Tom either, so I get why Alec was eager to boot him with Liza. But Liza's manipulations were easily neutralized once people realized she was lying, and she and Tom were allies and huge shields for, well, the Shield.

Sending Tom out of the game too early raised Alec's target and cost him a chunk of his own side of the house.

It's hard to say if Tom would have left if Alec hadn't turned on him - he was Gary's target for the week long before the Shield got in his ear (but shhh, let them think they were running the show.) Still, if Alec had managed to save Tom for a few more weeks, he would have had a loyal ally to hide behind as he slipped deeper into the game.

2. He Annoyed Andrew!

Sealing his fate 

I've said before that this was one of his biggest mistakes. Up until this night, Alec and Andrew were forging some sort of cautious trust, but after Alec forced Head of Household on Andrew in the Double Eviction and went on to score $10,000 for it by winning the next Head of Household, Andrew has been counting the days until he could send Alec packing, while Alec remained oblivious.

Alec only realized this in the last few days, and missed his chance to solve this problem quite easily during Topaz's brief Head of Household reign.

Speaking of which...

3. He Sold Out Topaz and Gary!

On paper, running a Brigade strategy sounds great. In practice, it's not as easy as the original BG made it look.

This group really sucked at it. Tom and Emmett both fell prey to the classic Brigade pitfall of "actually caring about your side alliance more than the main alliance", and Alec's attempts to prevent the same just made him look shady and untrustworthy to the rest of the house.

And then there was the disastrous Fast Forward. For some reason, Alec decided that his weak alliance with Andrew meant more to him than his solid alliance with Topaz, and kept the dangerous Andrew over loose cannon AJ. Why? Well, apparently because he liked Andrew better than Topaz. That's the best I got.

Topaz knew right away just how badly he'd screwed up, but Alec, far too cocky about his game as usual, just couldn't see it:

No, Alec, you're not.

No, Alec, you don't.

Thank you, Topaz.

(If only.)

The short-lived Fourgy Alliance, when Peter and Alec faked a secret alliance with Gary and Topaz, was probably the one thing that could have positioned the Shield solidly in the game for a few weeks.

If they'd been sincere about it and tried to target others with more connections in the house, instead of house outsiders Gary and Topaz who could have been pulled into a firmer alliance with them, the Shield might not be looking at getting split this week.

4. He Quit POV!

"Would you get mad if I killed you?" (The Canadians keep quoting this wrong, by the way.)

We won't know until Wednesday's episode exactly what happened, but for some reason Alec decided to give up in yesterday's Power of Veto competition, allowing Peter to land his first competitive win.

(I still can't get over that.)

To The Victor

His one shot was either winning POV or having Topaz pull him off the block - Peter's victory seals Alec's fate once and for all.

So why would he do it? Did he think that Peter needed the save more than he did? Did he do one of his quick calculations and realize that he couldn't win? Did he think he could get Talla or Andrew on the block and get them out instead?

Whatever the reason, I have a feeling Alec will look back on that moment as the one that finally sealed his fate.

***

Ready for the taking

The kicker to all of this is that Alec did have the tools to get to the end of the game, if he'd realized that Topaz was his best potential ally after Peter. I genuinely want to smack the guy for not realizing this earlier. 

One of the most valuable things you can have in the Big Brother house is a loyal ally, yet he's been tossing his left and right for people he would rather get along with. 

Unfortunately for Alec, he'll be spending most of the jury phase in the Jury House, with the people he already tossed.

***

Too late

One of two weird things is happening in the last few days with Alec and Topaz, by the way. 

He's looking at her longer, he's not recoiling from her kisses anymore, and he seems just as affectionate in private as in public. Either he's gotten much better at faking it with her - which is a distinct possibility - or she's finally broken through to him with her sweetly protective "turning the other cheek" act, and he's starting to fall for her a bit. 

My inner romantic would be satisfied if it's the latter - if Alec finally realizes how much he's screwed up with her, right as he loses the game. 

Unfortunately, because this is Alec, he's probably just getting better at faking it. 

The Blind Side

We've had a season full of these so far:

I don't for the life of me understand why we're still looking at one in the eighth Head of Household reign of the season.

Why not? 

Because we've got a house full of apparent gamers, and we're in the jury phase of the game.  Anyone with an eye on Final 2, which is basically everyone except Topaz right now (and even she's got an opportunity if she plays her cards right) should be thinking about jury management. Enough with the snarky goodbye messages and last-minute secret votes, now is the time to send them out the door feeling all warm and fuzzy about you.

Three little words, Alec: "Gary's going out."

Talla has tipped Topaz off that she's likely to stay in the house, and then promptly lied to the boys when confronted about it. I'm not going to call Talla a good strategist by any means, but in this case, she's been lucky enough to stumble into a decent piece of strategy simply because she's incapable of going along with the house.

Gary will be sashaying out the door on Thursday, but whoever does him the courtesy of letting him prepare for his exit interview may be looking at a bonus vote on the jury. So far, no one has taken the bait, though he's definitely aware of the rumor via Topaz.

What's up with Alec's elbow in these caps? Anyway.

Meanwhile, Emmett's loyalties, which may very well control who goes to the end of the game, continue to be enigmatic. If I had to peg him, I'd say he's uncertain and flits toward whoever he likes better on any given day. 

It seemed for a few days there like he was done with Quattro and solidly in Team Nova Scotia, but after a long-overdue strategic pow-wow last night with Alec and Peter, he's apparently back to considering dragging them along to the endgame with himself and Jillian.

Right now it would not be in Emmett or Jillian's interest to win the next Head of Household competition and show their hands, but there is some talk of splitting them up, mostly from Topaz. What are the odds that Topaz wins a Head of Household competition? A little higher if Jemmett decide to throw it, and Alec will throw it also, hoping for someone else to do his dirty work and boot Topaz. Right now, numbers are dwindling and all these dynamics are getting more and more complicated, even as they get harder to depict on the edited show.

So I'm calling it now: Unpredictable loose cannon Talla may very well win Head of Household next week, which means things could get very interesting, and no one should feel safe.

In other words, someone really needs to get off their ass and ruin the blind side, stat. 

Intermission: State of the Union #BBCANT

And so the #BBCANT feed outage rolls into its fourth day, Easter Sunday, a day when many celebrate resurrection. Somewhere up in a suburb near Toronto, the drama continues quietly, without live cameras, without the ever-watchful eye of the internet.

Let's take a few minutes to go through where things stand at the intermission of Big Brother Canada: Season One.

From the beginning of the season it's been a numbers game, which the dominant boys' alliance recognized when they named themselves numerically as "Quattro" and spoke openly of "The Nine", the cool, fun people they wanted in the Jury House and endgame.

The Nine, however, was largely the fantasy of Tom, who saw himself controlling it. As we all saw, he didn't, and he and Liza didn't even make the final Nine - both Gary and AJ slipped in over them.

So who are the actual Nine of Big Brother Canada Season One? Let's review where they stand and how they're shaping up for the endgame.

1. AJ

Yes, we all know from the feed leak that Topaz's reign was used to get AJ out of the house, so his game seems to be over. That's probably for the best. AJ hasn't brought much to the house, other than the running gag over his talking in third person. He never seemed at home in the game and doesn't seem to strategize at a very complex level, which puts him at a disadvantage in this house. 

But is it really over for AJ? We still don't know what "Double Head of Household" means. Most viewers assumed that the twist is similar to Big Brother US's Fast Forward or Double Eviction twist, but we don't know that for a fact.

One theory floating around the internet has it that Topaz's evictee, AJ, may still face off against Andrew's evictee, perhaps in a public vote next Thursday where Canada would keep one and send the other out.

If that's the case, AJ is still toast, but I wouldn't count him out just yet. He might return to his spot in the firing line, but if the house is shaken up, he might be able to sneak himself into a better position.

2. Talla

Talla is an odd duck in more ways than one. I know very little about her despite hours of feed viewing, except that she's highly animated, farts a lot, and has very soft hair.

Talla knows she's playing a game and strategizes appopriately with her allies, Andrew and AJ, but she's out of her league against gamers like Alec and Gary. She's not disliked within the house, but she also doesn't have alliances with stronger players who can drag her to the end. Most people in the house think they control her, but no one is exactly sure what she would do on her own. Talla is a free bird and a loose cannon.

Talla is also the smallest person in the house and a dangerous threat for the next endurance competition, which the boys recognize. That's both an advantage and a disadvantage for her.

Talla's game will go one of two ways at this point, and much of it is out of her control. If the core alliance in the house stays strong, Talla is on the outside and will soon be sent packing. If there's a schism, however, Talla will become a key vote and could easily vanish from the radar and sneak her way to the end.

3. Emmett

Milk boy Emmett is widely acknowledged across the internet to be playing the best game of classic Big Brother at this point. He's well-liked by everyone, and is a physical threat who somehow is still off the radar as a target, because he's been able to subtly forge alliances with almost everyone in the house. He's in all three major groups at this point: The remains of Quattro, headed by himself and Alec, the "Team Nova Scotia" alliance with Andrew and Jillian (tying him in to the Three Stooges of Andrew, AJ and Talla), and also has an enigmatic understanding with Gary that hasn't yet been tested in the game but which ties him to the house underdogs.

That doesn't mean it's going to be smooth sailing for him, but even if physical threats start to be targeted, Alec will probably be on the radar long before Emmett.

Emmett has a decent understanding of how to play the game, but he may not be able to manipulate at the level of an Alec or a Gary, and could have a hard time digging himself out if his muscles and charm finally start to threaten the other players.

4. Alec 

If I had to pick anyone for an Easter Sunday resurrection, it would be Alec. This guy is playing one of the more interesting games in the house, for better or for worse, and his game is surprisingly risky for someone who considers himself a student of the game. At the same time, he's a creative player with a deep knowledge of the game who might just have the skill set to pull himself out of a tight spot.

Who in the world cuts strings with a loyal (if skeptical) showmance at the final nine, especially when they still have allies like Gary in the game? A desperate man, that's who. I've said before that Alec wants to be the Spock of the house, emotionless and entertaining, but he's actually a highly personal and emotional player. He wanted Tom out because he disliked him, and that instinct only amplified after Showergate. He soured on his showmance with Topaz and decided to cut her early rather than trying to play it out for a solid ally and jury vote. Logically, Alec knows how to play the game and strategize, but he just doesn't know how to keep his emotions from getting in his way.

I still wouldn't count Alec out. His uncanny ability to play the victim should come in handy in the wake of his breakup with Topaz, and he was better-liked than her in the house to start with. If he's able to martyr himself and stay in the house's good graces, he can paint Gary and Topaz as the villains and stick himself safely with the house majority.

I also have to give Alec some credit for recognizing, as a fan, that Big Brother is supposed to be an entertaining show. His bizarre live show costumes and slip-ups, his characters like "Ricardo", his recent Diary Room montage with Peter, his continued insistence on walking around shirtless - all of it spices up the feeds and the broadcast shows. 

Love him or hate him, Alec has been one of the breakout stars of Big Brother Canada. He will probably be in danger sooner rather than later, and how he plays in the hot seat will determine whether that stardom ends soon, or Alec continues to dominate the chatter around the show.

5. Jillian

There's not much to say about Jillian.

She's not a bad gamer - she's well-liked and well-aligned within the house. Most of her allies don't talk much game with her, but trust her nevertheless. She's now unofficially the fourth member of Quattro, having replaced Tom, and is building a solid friendship with Peter to strengthen the foursome.

The one thing that puts her at risk is her open partnership with Emmett. If anyone decides the pair needs to be split up, Emmett is the obvious choice to go home, but Jillian would probably leave before him due to the alliance dynamics of the house.

Still, it's unlikely that she will leave before the end of the game, which is unfortunate, since she doesn't bring much to the house other than as Emmett's appendage. I'm concerned that Jillian's bland, solid gameplay could be shaping us up for a very boring live feed endgame at the tail of an otherwise entertaining season.

6. Peter

Peter's taken a great deal of heat from game critics, and rightfully so. As the show's default narrator, he's been allowed to paint himself in the Diary Room as a mastermind. But as we feed viewers all know, he's spending all his time lounging around the couch, nibbling at chicken nuggets and watching the game evolve.

But the game has mostly gone the way he wanted, while he's done very little. You can't underestimate how significant that is. He seemed shaken after he lost Liza in the Double Eviction, but he didn't let his housemates know how flustered he was, and went back into Hyena Mode, lurking and waiting for the scraps of the kill.

The true test will be when Pete lands himself in hot water, which could be sooner rather than later, more from Alec's doing than his own. Peter has stayed off the radar like any good Big Brother houseguest in the pre-jury weeks of the game, which is probably for the best, since as he's the first to admit, he hates everyone. But, he can't stay off the radar forever.

Peter doesn't manipulate as well as he tells Alec he does, and he's not forging any alliances on that couch. The question for Peter will be: Are his true alliances with people like Alec, Emmett and Jillian enough to propel him into the endgame strategies he fantasizes about, or will he be left on the outside of the social core of the house going into the final weeks?

7. Andrew

As we all know due to the feed leak, Andrew currently holds Head of Household power, and at a very critical time. Andrew's decisions this week could very well determine which alliances make it into the final weeks of the game. Last time Andrew held the power, he went with the house consensus and seemed to resent it, but will he make the same choice this time?

Andrew is a paranoid player, who just last week was openly and rightfully skeptical of Alec and his machinations in the house. On the other hand, Alec may have dug himself out of that hole by saving Andrew during Topaz's short reign. Or did he?

Andrew seems to shift his game from day to day and conversation to conversation, and while he seems to be shifting out of the Three Stooges and into Quattro, it's hard to say if that's intentional or just for strategic appearances. Andrew, like Alec, is an emotional player, but he's not quite the same level of strategist.

Right now, I'm not sure if I can see an endgame victory path for Andrew. He has two choices this week: stick with the house consensus and target Gary/Topaz, or shake things up by targeting some combination of Alec/Peter/Emmett. If he chooses the first path, he stays on the outside of the house's social core and is still high on the hitlist, but if he chooses the second, he makes himself an even bigger target with the remaining competitive threats from Quattro.

At this point, Andrew is still a wild card, and I'm curious to see what choices he will have made by the time the feeds come up tonight.

8. Topaz

Right now, Topaz's game is the one we know the least about.

We know that up until her Head of Household victory, she was in a vulnerable position, threatened by her declining relationship with Alec and his work against her. We also know that sometime after the feeds went down, the two of them broke up, and are now decidedly at odds.

At odds with Alec is not a good place to be. As I said earlier, he can play the victim like no one else's business, and with her constant bickering with Big Brother over alarms and rule-breaking, Topaz is not exactly positioned to gain sympathy from the rest of the house.

We also don't know what a vengeful Topaz looks like - will she take it lying down, or will she go to the mat and try to bring Alec down with her? She has an opening if she can play on Andrew's paranoia of Alec. The one thing protecting Alec so far has been that no one is talking about his game, but if Andrew and Topaz compare notes, they could easily figure out what he's doing and start working to take him down once and for all.

Topaz is perhaps the biggest wild card in the game right now - she could be anywhere between 0 and 60 right now, and we won't know where she stands until later tonight. Still, her chances of making it to the end are currently slim to none, unless she can manage to strengthen new alliances as a single girl in the house.

9. Gary

I said most of what I wanted to say about Gary yesterday. He's been a breath of fresh air on the show and the live feeds, and has astute perceptive skills to propel him in this game where social dynamics are everything. He's also a physical threat in ways that often go unnoticed by the other houseguests. At the same time, he's socially immature and annoys the house on a regular basis, and has never been part of the "in crowd", though many of its members individually do seem to like him quite a bit. He's also a personal player, though he's wise enough to try to separate his emotions from the game and try to at least fake an alliance with Alec even in the wake of his betrayal.

Unless things change drastically, Gary will remain where he is on the hit list and eventually be sent packing.

That said, underdogs with social skills have a way of continuing to slide through to the end in this game. Gary is a target that others can hide behind, and if he realizes that and plays it to his advantage, he could make it farther.

I don't think it will happen and don't expect that Gary will go much further in the game, but given that he wasn't even supposed to be in "The Nine", he's done okay for himself.

***

Reason Number One why Andrew should consider flipping the house this week?

That.

Tonight, we'll find out where the game stands, and we'll know more about who's positioning themselves for the run to the finals. 

Big Brother Around the Web: Peter the Hyena

Still confused about the Big Brother Canada alliance drama? Poster onthefencewithrach at Digital Spy has an amazing summary of where things stand and why. Check out the fifth post down in this thread.

For a bonus, scroll down two more posts for the same poster's very apt metaphor comparing Peter to a hyena, given how he's hovering around the kill and waiting for the scraps.

Hyena, or Peter?

Peter, or Hyena?

Oh wow. I can totally see it, actually. 

Hot Tub Time Machine

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, insomniac feed viewers caught an interesting little chat out in the hot tub between Alec and Andrew. Emmett was also there, but said almost nothing, letting the other two do most of the talking.

Dr. Won't

Given that Alec thinks he has Andrew wrapped around his finger, which Andrew disagrees with, the dynamics of the conversation were interesting. So interesting, in fact, that in checking various feed discussion forums this morning, no one seems to agree on the true subtext of the discussion.

Alec openly talked about cutting Topaz in the next few weeks. Andrew listened to him also talk about getting rid of AJ and Talla and didn't disagree. Andrew basically called him out on being closely aligned with Peter, which Alec didn't disagree with, and Alec even sort of agreed when Andrew classified Peter as a floater. They discussed who they could and couldn't target, and who they could and couldn't stand to see targeted. The house divide was on full blast, but they were so polite about it, it's difficult to see if either one understood the full context of what they were getting at. 

They even talked about Alec's $10K win in this week's HOH comp, which Andrew is still bittercakes about. Alec tried to downplay it, pointing out that it doesn't matter in the house (oh, but it does), and that it will just go right into his massive educational debt.

Pretty boy, shhhhhh

Emmett showed the best game play in the hot tub last night, by keeping his trap shut and listening. Emmett and his pretty face are sitting pretty in this game right now. The house division for the next weeks is starting to show, and everyone wants him and Jillian on their side. He's a comp threat whether he cheats or not, but he's so likable and charismatic, everyone just assumes he's working with them. 

It worked for Hayden on BBUS Season 12, and Emmett is on the path to the finals if he can keep it up.

Frenemies?

If Andrew is still as upset with Alec as he claimed to be early in the week, he's playing a good game right now. He's stoking Alec's trust and collecting information from him, and is getting to the point where he could easily take the nuggets he has and use them to try to take Alec down. At the same time, he's safe for now with Alec apparently wanting to drag him even further than Gary and Topaz. If he can keep the target off his own back, laying low might not be a bad idea.

The easiest way to figure out what Alec and Andrew each made of their conversation will be to watch what Alec says to Peter today, and what Andrew says to AJ today. Keep in mind that what they don't say could be more revealing than what they do.

The players don't have much to strategize about at the moment, since Emmett holds the Power of Veto and has no interest in saving Suzette, but that makes this the perfect time to assess where they stand and start drawing up plays for the coming weeks.