Intermission: State of the Union #BBCANT

And so the #BBCANT feed outage rolls into its fourth day, Easter Sunday, a day when many celebrate resurrection. Somewhere up in a suburb near Toronto, the drama continues quietly, without live cameras, without the ever-watchful eye of the internet.

Let's take a few minutes to go through where things stand at the intermission of Big Brother Canada: Season One.

From the beginning of the season it's been a numbers game, which the dominant boys' alliance recognized when they named themselves numerically as "Quattro" and spoke openly of "The Nine", the cool, fun people they wanted in the Jury House and endgame.

The Nine, however, was largely the fantasy of Tom, who saw himself controlling it. As we all saw, he didn't, and he and Liza didn't even make the final Nine - both Gary and AJ slipped in over them.

So who are the actual Nine of Big Brother Canada Season One? Let's review where they stand and how they're shaping up for the endgame.

1. AJ

Yes, we all know from the feed leak that Topaz's reign was used to get AJ out of the house, so his game seems to be over. That's probably for the best. AJ hasn't brought much to the house, other than the running gag over his talking in third person. He never seemed at home in the game and doesn't seem to strategize at a very complex level, which puts him at a disadvantage in this house. 

But is it really over for AJ? We still don't know what "Double Head of Household" means. Most viewers assumed that the twist is similar to Big Brother US's Fast Forward or Double Eviction twist, but we don't know that for a fact.

One theory floating around the internet has it that Topaz's evictee, AJ, may still face off against Andrew's evictee, perhaps in a public vote next Thursday where Canada would keep one and send the other out.

If that's the case, AJ is still toast, but I wouldn't count him out just yet. He might return to his spot in the firing line, but if the house is shaken up, he might be able to sneak himself into a better position.

2. Talla

Talla is an odd duck in more ways than one. I know very little about her despite hours of feed viewing, except that she's highly animated, farts a lot, and has very soft hair.

Talla knows she's playing a game and strategizes appopriately with her allies, Andrew and AJ, but she's out of her league against gamers like Alec and Gary. She's not disliked within the house, but she also doesn't have alliances with stronger players who can drag her to the end. Most people in the house think they control her, but no one is exactly sure what she would do on her own. Talla is a free bird and a loose cannon.

Talla is also the smallest person in the house and a dangerous threat for the next endurance competition, which the boys recognize. That's both an advantage and a disadvantage for her.

Talla's game will go one of two ways at this point, and much of it is out of her control. If the core alliance in the house stays strong, Talla is on the outside and will soon be sent packing. If there's a schism, however, Talla will become a key vote and could easily vanish from the radar and sneak her way to the end.

3. Emmett

Milk boy Emmett is widely acknowledged across the internet to be playing the best game of classic Big Brother at this point. He's well-liked by everyone, and is a physical threat who somehow is still off the radar as a target, because he's been able to subtly forge alliances with almost everyone in the house. He's in all three major groups at this point: The remains of Quattro, headed by himself and Alec, the "Team Nova Scotia" alliance with Andrew and Jillian (tying him in to the Three Stooges of Andrew, AJ and Talla), and also has an enigmatic understanding with Gary that hasn't yet been tested in the game but which ties him to the house underdogs.

That doesn't mean it's going to be smooth sailing for him, but even if physical threats start to be targeted, Alec will probably be on the radar long before Emmett.

Emmett has a decent understanding of how to play the game, but he may not be able to manipulate at the level of an Alec or a Gary, and could have a hard time digging himself out if his muscles and charm finally start to threaten the other players.

4. Alec 

If I had to pick anyone for an Easter Sunday resurrection, it would be Alec. This guy is playing one of the more interesting games in the house, for better or for worse, and his game is surprisingly risky for someone who considers himself a student of the game. At the same time, he's a creative player with a deep knowledge of the game who might just have the skill set to pull himself out of a tight spot.

Who in the world cuts strings with a loyal (if skeptical) showmance at the final nine, especially when they still have allies like Gary in the game? A desperate man, that's who. I've said before that Alec wants to be the Spock of the house, emotionless and entertaining, but he's actually a highly personal and emotional player. He wanted Tom out because he disliked him, and that instinct only amplified after Showergate. He soured on his showmance with Topaz and decided to cut her early rather than trying to play it out for a solid ally and jury vote. Logically, Alec knows how to play the game and strategize, but he just doesn't know how to keep his emotions from getting in his way.

I still wouldn't count Alec out. His uncanny ability to play the victim should come in handy in the wake of his breakup with Topaz, and he was better-liked than her in the house to start with. If he's able to martyr himself and stay in the house's good graces, he can paint Gary and Topaz as the villains and stick himself safely with the house majority.

I also have to give Alec some credit for recognizing, as a fan, that Big Brother is supposed to be an entertaining show. His bizarre live show costumes and slip-ups, his characters like "Ricardo", his recent Diary Room montage with Peter, his continued insistence on walking around shirtless - all of it spices up the feeds and the broadcast shows. 

Love him or hate him, Alec has been one of the breakout stars of Big Brother Canada. He will probably be in danger sooner rather than later, and how he plays in the hot seat will determine whether that stardom ends soon, or Alec continues to dominate the chatter around the show.

5. Jillian

There's not much to say about Jillian.

She's not a bad gamer - she's well-liked and well-aligned within the house. Most of her allies don't talk much game with her, but trust her nevertheless. She's now unofficially the fourth member of Quattro, having replaced Tom, and is building a solid friendship with Peter to strengthen the foursome.

The one thing that puts her at risk is her open partnership with Emmett. If anyone decides the pair needs to be split up, Emmett is the obvious choice to go home, but Jillian would probably leave before him due to the alliance dynamics of the house.

Still, it's unlikely that she will leave before the end of the game, which is unfortunate, since she doesn't bring much to the house other than as Emmett's appendage. I'm concerned that Jillian's bland, solid gameplay could be shaping us up for a very boring live feed endgame at the tail of an otherwise entertaining season.

6. Peter

Peter's taken a great deal of heat from game critics, and rightfully so. As the show's default narrator, he's been allowed to paint himself in the Diary Room as a mastermind. But as we feed viewers all know, he's spending all his time lounging around the couch, nibbling at chicken nuggets and watching the game evolve.

But the game has mostly gone the way he wanted, while he's done very little. You can't underestimate how significant that is. He seemed shaken after he lost Liza in the Double Eviction, but he didn't let his housemates know how flustered he was, and went back into Hyena Mode, lurking and waiting for the scraps of the kill.

The true test will be when Pete lands himself in hot water, which could be sooner rather than later, more from Alec's doing than his own. Peter has stayed off the radar like any good Big Brother houseguest in the pre-jury weeks of the game, which is probably for the best, since as he's the first to admit, he hates everyone. But, he can't stay off the radar forever.

Peter doesn't manipulate as well as he tells Alec he does, and he's not forging any alliances on that couch. The question for Peter will be: Are his true alliances with people like Alec, Emmett and Jillian enough to propel him into the endgame strategies he fantasizes about, or will he be left on the outside of the social core of the house going into the final weeks?

7. Andrew

As we all know due to the feed leak, Andrew currently holds Head of Household power, and at a very critical time. Andrew's decisions this week could very well determine which alliances make it into the final weeks of the game. Last time Andrew held the power, he went with the house consensus and seemed to resent it, but will he make the same choice this time?

Andrew is a paranoid player, who just last week was openly and rightfully skeptical of Alec and his machinations in the house. On the other hand, Alec may have dug himself out of that hole by saving Andrew during Topaz's short reign. Or did he?

Andrew seems to shift his game from day to day and conversation to conversation, and while he seems to be shifting out of the Three Stooges and into Quattro, it's hard to say if that's intentional or just for strategic appearances. Andrew, like Alec, is an emotional player, but he's not quite the same level of strategist.

Right now, I'm not sure if I can see an endgame victory path for Andrew. He has two choices this week: stick with the house consensus and target Gary/Topaz, or shake things up by targeting some combination of Alec/Peter/Emmett. If he chooses the first path, he stays on the outside of the house's social core and is still high on the hitlist, but if he chooses the second, he makes himself an even bigger target with the remaining competitive threats from Quattro.

At this point, Andrew is still a wild card, and I'm curious to see what choices he will have made by the time the feeds come up tonight.

8. Topaz

Right now, Topaz's game is the one we know the least about.

We know that up until her Head of Household victory, she was in a vulnerable position, threatened by her declining relationship with Alec and his work against her. We also know that sometime after the feeds went down, the two of them broke up, and are now decidedly at odds.

At odds with Alec is not a good place to be. As I said earlier, he can play the victim like no one else's business, and with her constant bickering with Big Brother over alarms and rule-breaking, Topaz is not exactly positioned to gain sympathy from the rest of the house.

We also don't know what a vengeful Topaz looks like - will she take it lying down, or will she go to the mat and try to bring Alec down with her? She has an opening if she can play on Andrew's paranoia of Alec. The one thing protecting Alec so far has been that no one is talking about his game, but if Andrew and Topaz compare notes, they could easily figure out what he's doing and start working to take him down once and for all.

Topaz is perhaps the biggest wild card in the game right now - she could be anywhere between 0 and 60 right now, and we won't know where she stands until later tonight. Still, her chances of making it to the end are currently slim to none, unless she can manage to strengthen new alliances as a single girl in the house.

9. Gary

I said most of what I wanted to say about Gary yesterday. He's been a breath of fresh air on the show and the live feeds, and has astute perceptive skills to propel him in this game where social dynamics are everything. He's also a physical threat in ways that often go unnoticed by the other houseguests. At the same time, he's socially immature and annoys the house on a regular basis, and has never been part of the "in crowd", though many of its members individually do seem to like him quite a bit. He's also a personal player, though he's wise enough to try to separate his emotions from the game and try to at least fake an alliance with Alec even in the wake of his betrayal.

Unless things change drastically, Gary will remain where he is on the hit list and eventually be sent packing.

That said, underdogs with social skills have a way of continuing to slide through to the end in this game. Gary is a target that others can hide behind, and if he realizes that and plays it to his advantage, he could make it farther.

I don't think it will happen and don't expect that Gary will go much further in the game, but given that he wasn't even supposed to be in "The Nine", he's done okay for himself.

***

Reason Number One why Andrew should consider flipping the house this week?

That.

Tonight, we'll find out where the game stands, and we'll know more about who's positioning themselves for the run to the finals. 

Big Brother Around the Web: Peter the Hyena

Still confused about the Big Brother Canada alliance drama? Poster onthefencewithrach at Digital Spy has an amazing summary of where things stand and why. Check out the fifth post down in this thread.

For a bonus, scroll down two more posts for the same poster's very apt metaphor comparing Peter to a hyena, given how he's hovering around the kill and waiting for the scraps.

Hyena, or Peter?

Peter, or Hyena?

Oh wow. I can totally see it, actually. 

Hot Tub Time Machine

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, insomniac feed viewers caught an interesting little chat out in the hot tub between Alec and Andrew. Emmett was also there, but said almost nothing, letting the other two do most of the talking.

Dr. Won't

Given that Alec thinks he has Andrew wrapped around his finger, which Andrew disagrees with, the dynamics of the conversation were interesting. So interesting, in fact, that in checking various feed discussion forums this morning, no one seems to agree on the true subtext of the discussion.

Alec openly talked about cutting Topaz in the next few weeks. Andrew listened to him also talk about getting rid of AJ and Talla and didn't disagree. Andrew basically called him out on being closely aligned with Peter, which Alec didn't disagree with, and Alec even sort of agreed when Andrew classified Peter as a floater. They discussed who they could and couldn't target, and who they could and couldn't stand to see targeted. The house divide was on full blast, but they were so polite about it, it's difficult to see if either one understood the full context of what they were getting at. 

They even talked about Alec's $10K win in this week's HOH comp, which Andrew is still bittercakes about. Alec tried to downplay it, pointing out that it doesn't matter in the house (oh, but it does), and that it will just go right into his massive educational debt.

Pretty boy, shhhhhh

Emmett showed the best game play in the hot tub last night, by keeping his trap shut and listening. Emmett and his pretty face are sitting pretty in this game right now. The house division for the next weeks is starting to show, and everyone wants him and Jillian on their side. He's a comp threat whether he cheats or not, but he's so likable and charismatic, everyone just assumes he's working with them. 

It worked for Hayden on BBUS Season 12, and Emmett is on the path to the finals if he can keep it up.

Frenemies?

If Andrew is still as upset with Alec as he claimed to be early in the week, he's playing a good game right now. He's stoking Alec's trust and collecting information from him, and is getting to the point where he could easily take the nuggets he has and use them to try to take Alec down. At the same time, he's safe for now with Alec apparently wanting to drag him even further than Gary and Topaz. If he can keep the target off his own back, laying low might not be a bad idea.

The easiest way to figure out what Alec and Andrew each made of their conversation will be to watch what Alec says to Peter today, and what Andrew says to AJ today. Keep in mind that what they don't say could be more revealing than what they do.

The players don't have much to strategize about at the moment, since Emmett holds the Power of Veto and has no interest in saving Suzette, but that makes this the perfect time to assess where they stand and start drawing up plays for the coming weeks.

Real Talk: BBCAN Alliances

In the wake of the first (?) double eviction, with loyalties shifting and truths revealed, let's revisit where the house alliances stand.

Just passing by

Actual, Genuine Alliances: 
-Secret Wedding (Gary + Topaz)
-The Shield (Alec + Peter)
-The Three Stooges (AJ + Andrew + Talla)
-Jemmett (Jillian + Emmett)
-Suzette (??)

Looser, Less Genuine Alliances: 
-Alec, Peter, and Emmett are still loosely arranged via Quattro (Trio?) and seem to be staying loyal to each other so far.
-The Shield and Secret Wedding combined in Fourgy, but despite a second week in power, it doesn't look like that will stick.
-Emmett and Gary are fond of each other and interested in working together.
-Peter is building a friendship with Jillian with an eye towards bringing her in for a refreshed Quattro.
-Alec is totally sure he and Andrew are best buds. (He's wrong.)
-The Three Stooges think they can pull Jemmett over to help them take out The Shield. (They're wrong.)
-Peter has it in his head that he "controls" Talla, for reasons that aren't clear. (He doesn't.)

Who puppets the puppeteers?

Getting orphaned Suzette out of the way this week makes sense for almost everyone, but Alec is in trouble if he has to put a Stooge like AJ or Talla in the line of fire. Andrew is already starting to rev the engines in his direction and the ship is turning. The Stooges want to try and align with Emmett and Jillian for a strong five, but are seemingly unaware of Quattro and its remaining alliance structure.

The central house power seems to lie in Jemmett + Secret Wedding + The Shield (basically, a combination of Fourgy and Quattro, putting Alec and Peter in a power position), but the Stooges are starting to build alliances to chip away at that, and might be successful. The "power" six have a number of weaknesses - distrust between the Shield and Secret Wedding members, and a lack of connection between Jemmett and Secret Wedding. They're not a solid six, and the Stooges may get an opportunity to swoop in and scoop up some combination of the six into their own power alliance.

Free bird

Suzette remains a non-factor. Given the way the game is shaping up, it wouldn't hurt any of these groups to try to scoop her up and save her this week as an alliance partner going forward, but no one seems especially interested in that right now.