Ground Control to Major Tom: It's Solitary Confinement Time on #BB15!

Today's Power of Veto competition involved punishments, always a fun change of pace this early in the season. We don't seem to have any crazy costumes, although Aaryn will be enjoying a change of hair, and Helen has a curfew.

More interestingly, Judd will be in solitary confinement for 24 hours in the cockpit lounge.

"How do I flush this toilet?" -actual Judd quote

Judd's game is starting to change up, as in the last twenty-four hours we've seen him moving away from the Goof Troop alliance (McRae/Amanda/Andy) and towards a possible new affiliation with Kaitlin/Spencer/GinaMarie in the wee hours of the morning. He's also contemplating the fact that this is the first-ever Big Brother season to boot three guys in a row right out of the gate, and wants a girl out this week. Judd has a lot to think about, and now he'll have time to think it over.

Solitary confinement is historically a game changer in Big Brother. Players in the house are constantly bombarded with social simulation, sleeping in rooms full of activity while gaming their days away. Cutting off human contact for a day has had interesting results in the past.

Let's review:

Big Brother 7: Danielle's Decline

Big Brother 7's Danielle Reyes took the first solitary confinement punishment that I can recall in the game, trying to solidify her Legion of Doom alliance during her Head of Household reign. Unfortunately for her, the alliance lost the competition, with Chilltown famously gobbling up prizes and hanging her out to dry.

This marked the start of Danielle's downfall in the game. For 24 hours she paced and muttered, and after she emerged, she was never the same. A legend in her own right during Season 3, Danielle crashed and burned after her solitary confinement in Season 7, culminating in her crazed doorbell-ringing meltdown on the Head of Household landing (earning her the nickname "Ding Dong Dani").

Big Brother 12: Hayden's Rise

In the first few weeks of Big Brother 12, future winner Hayden Moss seemed to be in a pickle, bouncing between his secret showmance with Kristen, a secret alliance with Kristen and Andrew, and his role as "The Animal" in The Brigade. It wasn't clear initially which direction he would go, especially because he hid each secret alliance from the other side, wisely waiting to see which would triumph.

All of this threatened to destroy his game when his alliance with Kristen and Andrew blew up noisily the night of Andrew's eviction, as Andrew called out the secret showmance, and Rachel played right into the chaos in the wake of her HOH win, targeting Kristen and Hayden to split up the showmance. Hayden initially seemed shaken and visibly upset for the first time in the game.

After Britney won the Veto competition, it became clear that he had no future with Kristen in the game. But at the same time, Hayden's strong position in the house was clear that night for maybe the first time, as the house rallied around him to keep him entertained, constantly keeping vigil at his door in alternate shifts. Kristen spent hours crying quietly in front of his door, but Hayden was more interested in his short visits with the Brigade, and in shoring up his allegiance to them. He was rarely alone, and during that time seemed to be most concerned with rattling off his resume to the live feed cameras, pleading for a job.

By the time Hayden emerged from solitary confinement, he was all-Brigade, all the time, and ready to start on the path that would lead him to one of the most solid and predictable victories in Big Brother history. 

Big Brother 13: Shelly's Flip

Shelly Moore didn't seem to be in much trouble when she landed in solitary confinement. She was in a dominant alliance with Jeff, Jordan, Rachel, Brendon and Adam, and while Head of Household Dani Donato had nominated her alongside Adam and Adam won the Veto, Brendon was clearly the target, leaving Shelly in little danger. Shelly even voluntarily took the punishment, since it was combined with a phone call home to her daughter, adorable game analyst Josie. 

 So it was no wonder that few of the houseguests felt the need to keep Shelly company - her punishment was really a reward, after all. But in the late hours of the evening, HOH Dani came to sit by the door, keeping Shelly company for a long stretch of time and reassuring her, despite having nominated her for eviction.

When Shelly chose to flip shortly after this and join Dani's team to help oust Jeff, the night of solitary confinement was cited as one of the things that convinced her that she could trust Dani. The fact that Dani chose to reach out and comfort Shelly in her isolation wound up playing a huge role in shifting the power in the game in the final stretch, leading to some of the most memorable eviction night drama ever in the history of Big Brother.

Big Brother 14: Dan's Resurrection

Do I even need to cover this one? Dan Gheesling's day in solitary confinement last year allowed him to create one of the most amazing and complex manipulations in Big Brother history, as he lay silently for hours in the hypnotic Have Not room listening to horrid music and gobbling a sheet cake, while plotting how to get out of what seemed to be the certain demise of his game.

Dan later went on to detail his thinking process in depth. Dan's Funeral was a virtuoso performance, transforming Dan from imminent game death to one of the most amazing and unexpected veto saves we've ever seen in this game. He would never have been able to come up with such a complex strategy out in the house, where his thoughts would have constantly been interrupted with the conversations and drama of the house.

Of all the solitary confinement sagas, Dan's remains the most striking achievement. 

Big Brother 15: Judd's ?

So what do the next 24 hours hold for quiet, anxiety-ridden, quippy HOH Judd? He's sitting fine in the game, but now is the time to start thinking ahead for the long stretch. Will his paranoia get the best of him, or will the lack of social interaction allow him to focus on what he needs to do next in the game?

One interesting thing to note - Hayden, Shelly and Dan were all confined to the various Have Not rooms in their respective seasons, while only Dani Reyes was confined in the lounge by the bathroom, which will be Judd's prison for the next day. (This is because there are already Have Nots assigned to the room for the week - there were no Have Nots the weeks that Hayden, Shelly and Dan all were confined.) Doesn't bode well for our Tennesseean Head of Household, since only Dani's game was negatively rather than positively affected by solitary confinement. 

Stay tuned - the one thing we know is that this has the potential to be an intense psychological game changer for Judd, one way or another. 

Hot Tub Time Machine

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, insomniac feed viewers caught an interesting little chat out in the hot tub between Alec and Andrew. Emmett was also there, but said almost nothing, letting the other two do most of the talking.

Dr. Won't

Given that Alec thinks he has Andrew wrapped around his finger, which Andrew disagrees with, the dynamics of the conversation were interesting. So interesting, in fact, that in checking various feed discussion forums this morning, no one seems to agree on the true subtext of the discussion.

Alec openly talked about cutting Topaz in the next few weeks. Andrew listened to him also talk about getting rid of AJ and Talla and didn't disagree. Andrew basically called him out on being closely aligned with Peter, which Alec didn't disagree with, and Alec even sort of agreed when Andrew classified Peter as a floater. They discussed who they could and couldn't target, and who they could and couldn't stand to see targeted. The house divide was on full blast, but they were so polite about it, it's difficult to see if either one understood the full context of what they were getting at. 

They even talked about Alec's $10K win in this week's HOH comp, which Andrew is still bittercakes about. Alec tried to downplay it, pointing out that it doesn't matter in the house (oh, but it does), and that it will just go right into his massive educational debt.

Pretty boy, shhhhhh

Emmett showed the best game play in the hot tub last night, by keeping his trap shut and listening. Emmett and his pretty face are sitting pretty in this game right now. The house division for the next weeks is starting to show, and everyone wants him and Jillian on their side. He's a comp threat whether he cheats or not, but he's so likable and charismatic, everyone just assumes he's working with them. 

It worked for Hayden on BBUS Season 12, and Emmett is on the path to the finals if he can keep it up.

Frenemies?

If Andrew is still as upset with Alec as he claimed to be early in the week, he's playing a good game right now. He's stoking Alec's trust and collecting information from him, and is getting to the point where he could easily take the nuggets he has and use them to try to take Alec down. At the same time, he's safe for now with Alec apparently wanting to drag him even further than Gary and Topaz. If he can keep the target off his own back, laying low might not be a bad idea.

The easiest way to figure out what Alec and Andrew each made of their conversation will be to watch what Alec says to Peter today, and what Andrew says to AJ today. Keep in mind that what they don't say could be more revealing than what they do.

The players don't have much to strategize about at the moment, since Emmett holds the Power of Veto and has no interest in saving Suzette, but that makes this the perfect time to assess where they stand and start drawing up plays for the coming weeks.

Charge of the Brigade-Light

Big Brother Canada's four-man Quattro alliance was clearly patterned after Big Brother US Season 12's Brigade, one of the most successful alliances in Big Brother history. Yet three weeks (four evictions) into the series, their so-called "leader" is posed to walk out the door in an exit orchestrated by his own team.

Why did Quattro fail at doing what The Brigade did so well? The easy answer to this is "Tom", but let's go a little deeper than that.

Big Brother 12's Brigade - note the hype man.

First, let's talk about what Quattro was missing from day one. This is the one time I'll give credit to Enzo, so pay attention. Yes, we all know, Enzo was a terrible player, who never conceived a single move other than (maybe) naming the alliance. Sure, Matt was the strategist, Hayden was the executioner, Lane was the silent but deadly ally. But Enzo, fame-hungry, overconfident Enzo, did do one thing very well: he was an effective hype man.

Enzo spent Season 12 hyping the Brigade, until all of them truly believed what he was selling. Matt got along better with his "side alliance" Ragan, but because of his strategic single-mindedness and his belief in Enzo's hype, he never allowed himself to consider breaking the alliance. Lane considered it, and wisely kept it silent. Hayden never wavered either, allowing Enzo to take his athlete's team pride and wrap it up in the banner of their alliance. All four genuinely believed in the alliance and what it stood for.

Which one is the hype man?

Quattro lacked hype from the beginning. They rarely had group meetings. They aped the Brigade's general strategy, roping in two pairs of men, with Peter playing the dorky strategist role (Matt), Alec as the shirtless thinker (Hayden), Emmett as the hunky farmboy (Lane), and Tom as the bully and hype man (Enzo).

Quattro also successfully copied the Brigade's strategy of branching out and forming side alliances, in Topaz (Alec), Jillian (Emmett), and Liza (Tom). Poor Peter tried and failed to develop an effective side partner, but hey, Enzo never really had a true side alliance, either. So far, so good.

Still, the alliance crashed and burned by week three. Why? For the same reasons any alliance fails. The men grew suspicious of each other and began to think about outplaying each other. Tom refused to listen to his teammates, and Peter and Alec increasingly disliked his arrogance.

Watch your back, Tom...

The classic Brigade strategy also contains a serious vulnerability in that side alliance concept: what happens when members spend more time with their side alliances and start to like them better? That's what sunk Matt in Season 12, the boys decided he was too close to Ragan and had to go.

Big Brother's Bit on the Side?

The remaining members of Quattro will be at risk of this. If Topaz ever really opens up to Alec, will he start to be more interested in her than in the boys? If Peter ever finds a side alliance, will he get over his Liza funk and finally master the art of a secret alliance? What happens if Liza survives the double eviction and becomes his side alliance, given her tension with Emmett and Alec? And Emmett is awfully close to Jillian, to the point that he wants her in Quattro to replace Tom. Can the Brigade strategy work with members getting swapped in and out?

Moral of the story: On Big Brother, the strategy matters less than the execution. The Brigade was a brilliant strategy, only because the players were able to play it well.

The best Big Brother players are the ones who can read their housemates and adapt their strategy based on what they have to work with. Alec, Peter and Emmett seem to be doing this by pulling the plug on Tom earlier than planned.

Will it work to their advantage in the long run, or will Quattro become just another forgettable Big Brother alliance?